The El Niño now building in the Pacific is on course to be the strongest in modern records. The US Climate Prediction Center gives it an 83% chance of beating every El Niño since 1950, and the Met Office has called it “unprecedented”. Its effects are already being felt around the world, from drought emergencies in Central America to a weak Indian monsoon.
This guide explains where El Niño stands right now, why different websites quote different numbers, what forecasters expect for Britain’s autumn and winter, what it could mean for food prices, and why 2027 is now very likely to be the warmest year on record.
| The short version El Niño has been officially under way since June and is still strengthening. NOAA expects it to stay strong to very strong through to at least March 2027.NOAA puts the chance of a record-breaking event in October to December at 83%.For the UK, the Met Office’s clearest signal is a wetter, stormier autumn and early winter, with a higher risk of cold snaps later in the season. It does not guarantee a harsh or snowy winter.Food prices are the bigger long-term question. Rice, coffee, cocoa and sugar are most exposed, but the UK government says evidence for dramatic UK price rises is limited.The Met Office says 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record. |
Where El Niño stands now (October 2026)
In its monthly update on 8 October, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory in place and said El Niño strengthened further in September. Sea surface temperatures in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific were more than 4°C above average. The key Niño-3.4 index reached +2.1°C for the month, with +3.0°C in the Niño-3 region and +3.9°C in the Niño-1+2 region off South America.
NOAA’s forecasters said the chances remain high of a historic event, defined as a three-month reading of +2.5°C or more on its official index, which would exceed every El Niño since 1950:
| Three-month period | Chance of a record-breaking El Niño |
| September to November 2026 | 54% |
| October to December 2026 | 83% |
| November 2026 to January 2027 | 70% |
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 8 October 2026.
NASA satellites show the same story from space. Its October maps show a band of unusually warm, raised water stretching along the equator, with sea levels in parts of the eastern Pacific up to 1.3 feet higher than normal.
The Met Office went further in August. Its Head of Long Range Forecasting, Professor Adam Scaife, said: “I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.” The Met Office described 2026 as the year of the largest El Niño in living memory, and probably the largest since the 19th century.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. It happens roughly every two to seven years and usually peaks around the northern hemisphere winter. Its opposite, a cooler phase, is called La Niña.
Because the tropical Pacific is so vast, the extra warmth shifts where tropical rain clouds form. That in turn bends the jet streams and weather patterns far away, which is how a change in ocean temperature off Peru can affect monsoons in India, droughts in Africa and storm tracks across the Atlantic. El Niño also releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, which temporarily pushes up global temperatures.
Why do websites quote different El Niño numbers?
If you have seen figures ranging from +1.7°C to above +3°C, they can all be correct. They measure different things:
| Measure | Latest reading | What it means |
| Weekly Niño-3.4 anomaly | Above +3°C in early October | A snapshot of one week in the key Pacific region. Jumps around. |
| Monthly Niño-3.4 anomaly | +2.1°C (September) | The month’s average in the same region. |
| RONI, NOAA’s official index | +1.7°C (July to September) | A three-month average measured relative to the whole tropics, which filters out general ocean warming. NOAA uses it to declare and rank events. |
RONI stands for Relative Oceanic Niño Index. It lags behind weekly readings because it averages three months.
The record threshold NOAA talks about, +2.5°C, refers to the official three-month RONI index, not the weekly figures. That is why the official verdict on whether this is the strongest El Niño on record will only come once the October to December data is in.
What will El Niño mean for UK weather this winter?
Britain is a long way from the Pacific, and El Niño is only one of several factors that shape a UK winter. But with an event this large, its influence is likely to be stronger than usual. Here is what the Met Office has said:
| Period | What El Niño tends to do | What it means in practice |
| Autumn and early winter | Increased chances of wetter, stormier conditions across north-west Europe, including the UK | More named storms, heavy rain, saturated ground and a higher flood risk. Stormy westerly weather is often mild. |
| Later in winter | Increased risk of cold snaps | Spells of colder weather become more likely, though not certain. |
The pattern was visible during the last El Niño. In winter 2023 to 2024, the UK had a wet and stormy December followed by a colder spell in January, which the Met Office said was consistent with an El Niño winter.
Will it be a cold or snowy winter?
Nobody can say yet. El Niño loads the dice towards a stormy first half of winter and raises the risk of cold spells later, but other drivers, including winds high in the stratosphere and conditions in the Atlantic, can override it. Treat any long-range headline promising a “big freeze” or a white Christmas with caution, and use the Met Office’s monthly and three-month outlooks for the best guidance.
Is the government preparing?
According to a House of Commons Library briefing, the government has said the Met Office will continue to monitor the situation and the Cabinet Office will convene its cross-government Severe Weather Resilience Network if severe weather is forecast.
How to prepare for a wet, stormy winter
If the Met Office’s signal plays out, flooding and storm damage are the main risks for UK households over the next few months. Sensible steps now:
- Check your flood risk. In England, use the GOV.UK “check your long term flood risk” service. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have their own flood maps through SEPA, Natural Resources Wales and NI Direct.
- Sign up for flood warnings. They are free. In England, call Floodline on 0345 988 1188 or sign up online.
- Clear gutters and drains and secure garden furniture, trampolines and bins before storms.
- Check your home insurance covers storm and flood damage, and keep photos of valuable items.
- Plan for disruption. Storms often hit rail, roads and power. Keep a torch, phone power bank and essential medicines to hand.
- Watch for named storms. The Met Office names storms likely to cause significant impacts, and its warnings are the ones to follow.
Will El Niño push up food prices in the UK?
This is where El Niño could reach British households most directly, though the size of the effect is hotly debated.
El Niño tends to bring drought to parts of Asia, Africa, Australia and Central America, which grow many of the foods the UK imports. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit estimates that around a quarter of UK food imports, worth up to £17 billion, come from the parts of the world most exposed. A UK Government Office for Science roundtable identified rice, coffee and cocoa as particular risks to imported supplies.
| Food | Why it is exposed |
| Cocoa and chocolate | Most cocoa comes from West Africa, where strong El Niños have cut harvests in the past |
| Coffee | Production is concentrated in a few countries, including Brazil and Vietnam |
| Rice | A weak Indian monsoon and drought in South-East Asia can tighten supply; export restrictions can follow |
| Sugar | Past strong El Niños cut output in India and Thailand by 20% to 30%, according to investment analysts |
| Palm oil and some fruit | Drought in South-East Asia and other growing regions |
How big could the effect be?
Forecasts vary widely. Schroders’ head of global economics, David Rees, has said that if past patterns hold, a very strong El Niño could imply a doubling of global food prices over the next year or so, though Schroders has also noted that the link between El Niño and food prices is not a strong, direct one.
The UK government is more cautious. Its science note said evidence that El Niño could double UK food prices is limited and confidence in that estimate is low, and that the 2023 El Niño had virtually no discernible effect on UK food prices. What matters more is how El Niño combines with other pressures, such as energy and fertiliser costs, which are already elevated because of conflict in the Middle East.
What to expect: price rises, if they come, are most likely in 2027 and in imported products such as chocolate, coffee, rice and some fruit, rather than across the whole shopping basket.
What El Niño is doing around the world
| Region | Effect reported or forecast |
| India | Monsoon rainfall running well below normal, the Met Office said in August |
| Central America | Drought alerts in El Salvador and Honduras; Panama declared a national emergency |
| Southern Africa and north-east Australia | Heightened risk of drought, according to the Met Office |
| United States | NOAA’s winter outlook points to a much wetter pattern across the southern states; California has declared a statewide emergency |
| Atlantic hurricanes | Typically suppressed by El Niño because of stronger wind shear; the Met Office noted only three storms by late August |
| Global temperature | Pushed up, with the biggest effect in the year after the winter peak |
Why 2027 is likely to be the hottest year on record
Big El Niños release large amounts of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, and the effect on global temperature peaks in the calendar year after the event. The Met Office’s Dr Nick Dunstone has said 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and to be another year that temporarily exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
There is a clear precedent. The very strong El Niños of 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016 were each followed by what was then the warmest year on record. The Met Office stresses that the long-term rise is driven by climate change, with El Niño adding a temporary boost on top.
When will El Niño end?
Not soon. NOAA expects El Niño to persist through March to May 2027, and the World Meteorological Organization says conditions are very likely to last until at least February 2027. El Niños usually peak around the turn of the year and then fade during the following spring. After strong events, the Pacific sometimes swings into La Niña, but forecasts that far ahead are highly uncertain.
NOAA’s next monthly update is due on 12 November 2026.
El Niño 2026: FAQs
Is El Niño happening now?
Yes. NOAA declared El Niño conditions in June 2026 and its El Niño Advisory remains in place. The event is still strengthening and is expected to peak around the turn of the year.
Is this a “super El Niño”?
It is on course to be the strongest on record. NOAA gives an 83% chance it will exceed every El Niño since 1950 in October to December. The Met Office avoids the term “super El Niño” but has called this event unprecedented.
Does El Niño mean a cold winter in the UK?
Not necessarily. The clearest signal is a wetter, stormier autumn and early winter, which is often mild. El Niño raises the risk of cold snaps later in winter, but does not guarantee them.
Will El Niño cause flooding in the UK?
It increases the chances of the wet, stormy weather that causes flooding, but local flooding depends on individual storms. Check your flood risk and sign up for free warnings.
How long does El Niño last?
Typically nine to twelve months. This one began in spring 2026 and is expected to last into spring 2027.
What is the difference between El Niño and La Niña?
El Niño is the warm phase of the Pacific cycle and La Niña is the cool phase. They tend to have opposite effects on weather around the world.
Is climate change making El Niño stronger?
Scientists are still researching how climate change affects El Niño itself. What is clear is that El Niño’s warming effect now comes on top of a much warmer baseline, which is why years after strong El Niños keep setting temperature records.